I have had a better than average track record of making predictions about the future. I dont claim to have special powers to look into the future, but predictions have a better chance of being accurate if they are based on sources such as observation, related literature, and past events. Here are some of my predictions that I have already shared with those closest to me.
The period from 2008 to 2011 could possibly be the worst and the darkest for Pakistan; the depletion of our energy reserves, political upheaval in Balochistan, President Musharaff's grip on power (or lack of it) could all be the contributing factors.
Once all the previously-unheard-of pandemics like SARS, Bird Flu, the recent Dengue Fever that affected the whole country etc. subside, a new pandemic will sweep a large part of the globe causing wide-spread infertility in women, particularly in urban areas.
The current Pope Benedict, or the one who will follow him, will be assassinated by a Muslim. Amongst all the choas that will ensue after that, a new Pope will be named who would (or so it would be claimed) belong to Jesus Christ's bloodline.
We might live to see an imposition of Martial Law in the United States by the US Military, after much political infighting threatens the state of the union.
The institution of marriage as we have known it for centuries might change dramatically, or may also be shelved completely within 3 decades.
The next 2 decades will show a resurgence of India, as it goes on to become an economic powerhouse. As her commodity imports increase, and investment moves towards developing and maintaining infrastructure, the agriculture sector will be destroyed, leading to inequality and sharp increase in organized crime.
Britney Spears will commit suicide.
King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia will die in a plane crash.
In my experience, one of the very good ways of stopping bad things from happening is to predict them before they happen. I try to do my part. ;)
The following text I got from a forwarded e-mail. Thanks Kat, for sharing it.
In a brief conversation, a man asked a woman he was pursuing the question "What kind of man are you looking for?" She sat quietly for a moment before looking him in the eye and asking, "Do you really want to know?" Reluctantly, he said, "Yes." She began to expound... "As a woman in this day and age, I am in a position to ask a man what he can do for me that I can't do for myself. I pay my own bills. I take care of my household without the help of any man...or woman for that matter. I am in the position to ask, "What can you bring to the table?" The man looked at her. Clearly he thought that she was referring to money. She quickly corrected his thought and stated, "I am not referring to money. I need something more. I need a man who is striving for perfection in every aspect of life." He sat back in his chair, folded his arms, and asked her to explain. She said, "I am looking for someone who is striving for perfection mentally because I need conversation and mental stimulation. I don't need a simple-minded man. I am looking for someone who is striving for perfection spiritually because I don't need to be unequally yoked...believers mixed with unbelievers is a recipe for disaster. I need a man who is striving for perfection financially because I don't need a financial burden. I am looking for someone who is sensitive enough to understand what I go through as a woman, but strong enough to keep me grounded. I am looking for someone who I can respect. In order to be submissive, I must respect him. I cannot be submissive to a man who isn't taking care of his business. I have no problem being submissive...he just has to be worthy. God made woman to be a helpmate for man. I can't help a man if he can't help himself". When she finished her spill, she looked at him. He sat there with a puzzled look on his face. He said, "You are asking a lot." She replied, "I'm worth a lot."
I rewrote the above text to include the masculine point-of-view. Read below:
In a brief conversation, a woman asked a man she was pursuing the question, "What kind of woman are you looking for?" He sat quietly for a moment before looking at her in the eyes and asking, "Do you really want to know?" Reluctantly, she said, "Yes." He began to expound... "The point in life and career I am at, at this time, I would like to ask a woman what she has to offer that I can't get already. I have no shortage of friends, both male and female. I am never alone nor lonely. What I really want to ask a woman is, "What can you bring to the table?" The woman looked at him. Clearly she thought that he was referring to sex. He swiftly corrected her thought and stated, "I am not referring to sex, youth or anything of the sort. In fact, I need nothing. I simply need a woman who is striving for harmony in every aspect of life." She sat back in her chair, folded her arms, puzzled but intrigued, and asked him to explain. He said, "I am looking for someone who is striving for harmony mentally, so that she does not rethink and redoubt every decision she makes on a day-to-day basis, including her decision to be with me; and because I need the reassurance that she is on the same wavelength mentally as I am. I am looking for someone who is striving for harmony spiritually because ideals based on tales and heros from novels and movies is a receipe for disaster. I am looking for someone who is sensitive enough to understand that, as a male, I too can get hurt by words but strong enough to accept that despite all my good traits and bad, I have limitations and shortcomings, just like her. I am looking for someone who respects me for who I am. In order for me to be always loyal to her, she must respect me. I cannot be loyal to a woman who always doubts my morality and loyalty to her. I have no problem if she does not want to act submissive; for me to be fully committed to her, she must consider me worthy of her trust and respect. God made woman to be a helpmate for man. I can't seek help from a woman who thinks she could have had a better deal with someone else". When he finished his spill, he looked at her. She sat there with a puzzled look on her face. She asked, "You are asking a lot." He replied, "I can afford it. Now if you'll excuse me; Cindy is waiting."
If you have ever wondered what pork tastes like, read below:
99% of the people I know do not know what pork tastes like; neither did I some time back. Out of curiosity, I just had to try it out. Its difficult to explain the taste to someone who knows exactly the tastes of beef, meat and chicken, as that is what they have tasted all their lives. Since I myself did not have karhaai-pork, aaloo-pork, or pork biryani, it makes my job of explaining it all the more difficult. Anyway, I tried the same dish that had been cooked with both; beef and pork, and lets say, to the average Muslim, pork would taste like having salt-less meat or beef.
My recommendation: Don't try it if you haven't tried it before.
Studies suggest that 70-80% of business fail within the first year of operations. Although the studies I am referring to don't actually mention the root cause for the collapse of new business ventures, I think that happens primarily because of 2 reasons: (1) Conflicts between business partners, (2) Too many expectation s, too few results. There might be many other reasons, but my experience places these two above all others.
New ventures are very volatile, and relationship between the partners needs to be nurtured. In the previous part of Business XP, I had talked about forming business partnerships with people who you have studied with, since you understand each other better, and are more often willing to give them the space they need. However, fallouts with partners do occur, and spell the end of the business, no matter how close the (business) partners are. Understand first and foremost that people don't come together in business partnerships to be good citizens or some noble reason; they are in it for the money. If the partners don't see eye-to-eye on policy and administrative issues, there would be a breakup. However, chances are that many business partners loose the trust and respect of the other as soon as their new business venture starts generating revenue. This happens primarily because of little or no initial planning of how the money would be retained as company reserve or re-invested into the business or what percentage each partner would receive of the generated profit. One common folly, and indeed a reason for breakup, is not deciding at the onset the responsibilities each partner would have. In the absence of such planning, as revenue starts to trickle into the business, and a profit is realized, each partner would want a bigger piece of the pie thinking that it was she/he who worked more than the others. Mostly, this leads to disagreements, loss of trust, and whatever little profit is realized is divided among the partners, with no amount going into company reserve.
Another thing often overlooked is that in many partnerships, there might be one partner who, although not actively involved in day-to-day management, is the owner or landlord of the premises the business is located in. To avoid the initial infrastructure costs such as rent etc., many startups agree to this arrangement of a lower-then-market-rate rent or paying-the-accrued-rent-in-future, when the business is profitable. While there is nothing wrong with such a setup, the one thing that needs to be kept in mind is that according to business laws in Pakistan, the partner who also happens to be the owner of business premises enjoys a greater say in the business no matter what percentage of share he has in the business. More often, she/he who owns the premises gets into a dominating position since he/she can literally throw the business out on the street. This is where initial planning and resulting agreement between partners come into play, as the partner who owns the property needs to agree to charge the rent only after company revenues have become steady. This also applies to agreement on rent increments etc.
Naturally, expectations run high as the struggle begins. Here again, too many expectations can prove to be fatal as many business objectives may not have been achieved during the first year, and the partners might decide on calling it quits and go their separate ways. On the other hand, having too few expectations is just as bad since it would not allow the partners and managers to formulate objectives and strategy.
The solution to building a sustainable foundation for business and forging a strong partnership is "Planning". Planning does not merely involve thinking and discussing the business strategies, fund allocation, and sales forecast. It involves asking some really tough questions, and subsequently answering them. While I would not underscore the importance of a concise business proposal which is a means for presenting your idea and outlining a strategy for the achievement of your objectives; business proposals tend to overlook many problems and issues since they are never used to test the soundess of business ideas. Are feasibility reports the answer then? Well, yes and no. Feasibility reports present facts, figues, and cash-flow forecasts, but I have often found them to contain ideal-case situations and scenarios without taking into account the management team's own shortcomings. This can lead to numerous I-told-you-so and You-should-have-done-it-my-way arguments the minute something gos werong, or even if there is a chance of something going wrong. The snowball effect of ineffective planning can ruin the business and the relationship between the managers/partners.
This is no template or formula for testing the soundess of a business idea. However, there are some questions whose answers can help you in formulating a plan of action.
Not so long ago, while traveling between the Lahore-Islamabad motorway, the honorable minister for Information Technology, Islamic Republic of Pakistan, Mr. Owais Leghari, was stopped and fined by a Motorway police officer because the motorcade the minister was traveling with was driving faster than the speed limit. On reaching his destination, the honorable(?) minister made sure that the cop who had dared to stop him loose his job. Bill Gates, Chairman of Microsoft Corporation, and the richest person on earth was to deliver a lecture at the Computer Science Department of Carnegie Mellon University (CMU), one of the best, top-most, and highly respected Universities in the world. Just a day before the lecture, some students from the department, who were not happy with the Windows platform and Microsoft, painted messages on the building and fences. Knowing fully well what had happened, Gates chose to speak at the venue, ignoring the hooligan-istic choas that had ensued outside. You can read more about it and see the pictures here.
I had to conduct a Microsoft seminar at one of the leading institutions in the Islamic Republic, and one whose offer for a job as full-time faculty I had turned down in April 2000. The event was cancelled 3 days before it was to be held since the Dean's wish of having a high-ranking official from the Islamic Republic's Microsoft liasion office present during the event, could not be fulfilled. This wasn't the first time (and certainly not the last) when an event had to be cancelled for reasons pertaining specifically to the ego of a person at the helm of affairs at an academic institution.
While the minister's actions could be ignored, as after all, one would expect such behavior from an Islamic Republic's politician, but to see people from academia displaying the same traits as their masters in politics. Reminds of a saying, "Where talent is a dwarf, self-esteem is a giant".
I was asked by a blog visitor why I post my life-experiences on a blog, and my reasons for trying to influence people's minds by sharing my experiences. I think I should clarify that posting my life-experiences is in no way an attempt to influence people's minds or decision-making. I have always felt whenever I make a mistake or incur a loss if only I had prior knowldge of someone else's experience of the same situation, which would have spared me the loss. This blog is my attempt to share my experiences, both good and bad, so that those few who do read this blog may not make the mistake I've already made. Hopefully, through this endeavor, other people might be encouraged to share their experiences and lesson learnt for the good of others.
My experinces range from simple ones like "Don't hire a catering service who happen to own a restaurant as well" or "Don't hire an architect/contractor/plumber who simultaneously has a job within a 2 km radius", to real complex ones which I post here. I am glad that I was able to go through many experiences that most people go through much later in life.
Hope I've answered your question Sir.
I have learnt that my Pakistan is the most beautiful country in the world.
I have learnt that being patriotic means being compassionate, and being decisive means being successful.
I have learnt that no matter how much you plan, there would always be some situation that you are not prepared for.
I have learnt that the living for others is the biggest happiness in life.
I have learnt that eating a Rs. 15/- bowl of Chicken soup, Rs. 10/- shakar-kandi (suger-beet), or a Rs. 5/- plate of Kathiyawari cholay from a roadside-stand are far more filling than dinning out at the biggest, fanciest, and most expensive restaurants in town.
I have learnt that simply being passionate means nothing; it has to be backed by obsession.
I have learnt that all relationships follow the same life-cycle; all end in tragedy.
I have learnt that by exposing your weakness to even one person, no matter how trustable, you are making yourself more vulnerable.
I have learnt that the world never judges anyone by his or her character; you would instead be valued by how much you carry in your pockets, the labels you wear, the car you drive, the size of the house you live in, and your bank account.
I have learnt that sincerity is always rewarded by condescension.
I have learnt that loving someone means giving them the ability to hurt you the most.
I have learnt that wars within one's own-self never end, and you always live to fight another day.
I have learnt that each single person on earth has a story to tell, with one event in that story that changed them and their lives forever, for better or for worse.
I have learnt that one-fifth always remains untold.
Its always very important to know about the individuals you are dealing with in advance, so that you can spare yourself any loss or injury that they may inflict on you at a later stage, and you would always be prepared for anything thrown at you, be it relationships or business partnerships. There is no sure way or criteria to pre-judge people. You can only make use of the Accountability Matrix when you are dealing with individuals so that you know how the other person has been performing lately, however, with experience comes wisdom, which can allow you to categorize people at the very start of your dealings with them. I have, for example, realized that most of the people I was decieved/cheated by in business/work were either religious or had told me at some point in time that they considered me their son or younger brother. So, I would exercise extreme caution the next time I am dealing with a religious person or someone who tells me that I am like a son or younger brother to him.
There is one category of individuals I would refer to as Peter Keating. I came upon the name for the category after reading Ayn Rand's novel, "The Fountainhead". I was amazed how accurately Ayn Rand had written the character, and made me realize how many Peter Keatings I had come across in my life. While you can go and read the book yourself to know more about the character, I would summairze for you how you can identify a Peter Keating amongst the people around you, and deal with him. A Peter Keating may display one or more of the following characteristics, and there is a high probability that you will find 90% of these attributes in the same person.
(For reasons of clarity, I would refer to the person as a male, however, in reality, a Peter Keating has as many chances of being a female as a male.)
0) A Peter Keating is very normal, friendly, and even helpful. Its strange that someone you trust can one day turn into Peter Keating and feel so threatened by you that he starts trying to cause damage to you. It can be triggered by you, should you un-intentionally challenge him by your very own creative efforts. 1) A Peter Keating is hungry for recognition. Being hungry for recognition and limelight, Peter Keating is always in competing mode, always on the lookout for competition, since he wants to hog all the recognition and publicity, and cannot tolerate people's focus and interest shifting to anyone else. Can Peter Keating really compete? Well, that brings us to point no. 2 2) A Peter Keating is not creative and resorts to plagarism. Since the end result of all his efforts is recognition, he doesn't really spend time in creative endeavors, but is instead looking for a shortcut, some sort of a winning formula, or even copying from others to get what he wants quickly. 3) Peter Keating is paranoid. You can very well imagine Peter Keating being paranoid of anyone and everyone who might take the limelight off of him. Dont confuse this with jealousy. He has nothing against you personally. He is paranoid for his own sake. 4) A Peter Keating would address you differently and with different tones in different surroundings/gatherings. Since its you he is out to get and beat, and show his superiority, his attitude and tone of voice towards you with vary, depending on whether he is addressing you publicly, with other people being part of the conversation, or in privately. When he communicates with you privately, his tone would be one of respect, admiration, and even envy, but once you are in a public gathering, he would use a condescending tone, make jokes about you, or belittle you, in order to show people that he is somehow superior to you. 5) A Peter Keating constantly seeks approval and reassurance. You are the last one he would seek approval or reassurance from. Since his philosophy revolves around gaining fame, he is constantly looking for people's approval, praise, support, and reassurance. 6) On the Accountability Matrix, Peter Keating looses all his points very quickly, and for all the wrong reasons. If you create an Accountability Matrix for such a person, you will find that he will loose all his leeway points very quickly, since his actions would always be focused towards causing damage to you, even though he would be gaining nothing from all those efforts, but he would be still be doing his best.
The best way to deal with Peter Keating is to NOT allow yourself to become like him. If you are creative yourself, you need not worry. He would eventually burn himself out and you would not be affected. The other thing you should do is to continually raise the bar, so all his efforts to match you would go to waste. Should you decide to get back at him, become Howard Roark (the hero of the novel), and sleep with his wife. ;)
I am no authority on the subject, but I guess I have made enough mistakes and lost enough money to be able to learn what business is all about (and advise people too). There is no easy way to learn business. Lets get one thing straight; Doing business is something that cannot be taught in business schools; you learn business by trying it out, experimenting, and by making mistakes. Books can teach you about marketing, economics, and finance, but they never delve into how you start from scratch. In his book "How to be a Billionaire", Donald Trump (yes, the guy from the TV show 'The Apprentice') talks about how and where to invest your money etc. BULLSHIT! All similar books make one general assumption, that you already have a large amount of cash in hand and that you can go around investing and hiring Harvard, LUMS, or IBA graduates to manage your portfolio.
In most of the cases (and in my case too), starting off was never easy. No matter what type of business you want to go in, 2 things are most important initially, some cash-in-hand, and a good, dedicated team. The little cash that you would initially have would enable you to meet the day-to-day expenses. But more importantly, the team that would be working with you is going to play the biggest role in your business's success or failure. At early stages in an organization's life, hiring an external team is impossible, specially for fresh starters. Usually, good team members are the people you have studied with and have been friends with for a long time, since you understand them, and vice verssa, and if they are partnering with you for the venture, they have as much stake and investment (time or monetary) as you, and you would not have to worry about paying salaries from Day 1.
That brings me to a very important consideration; balancing costs for startups. No startup can generate a profit from the very first day of operations. Anyone thinking of starting out on her/his own cannot afford to have a great office with all the staff immediately after starting. All great ideas form and take shape in houses or residential buildings where the Entrepreneur(s) is/are residing; HP, Microsoft, Google all humbly started from their founders' abode, and grew into billion dollar companies with time. Most startups are faced with the dilemma of coming up with investments to kickoff; and for any new venture, a large part of the initial revenues could go towards paying the cost of the premises it is housed in. The most advisable approach, therefore, is to start from your own home, or any place that would not add to the initial cost of starting up. REMEMBER, business is as much about making money as it is about controlling costs whilst maintaining a smooth flow of operations. Most startups are so pre-occupied with ways to advertise and reach out to their customers and generate a revenue that they seldom stop to think about their own organization's internal functions and operations. As soon as they generate a revenue, reality hits them in the face.
To be continued...
I was invited to talk on "Entrepreneurship for Engineers" during the IEE (Not IEEE) Career Counseling Seminar at NED University of Engineering and Technology on May 31, 2005 (read more about it here). The KFC branch in Gulshan-e-Iqbal (near NED University) had been burnt down by religious terrorists less than 24 hours ago, killing 7 people inside, and I was able to catch a glimpse of the smoke still coming out as I drove by. With so any Universities in Pakistan that I am connected to, I am yet to come across any student who would seriously consider starting a business on her/his own after finishing education. There are a number of reasons for this; the most important being the lack of any proper coaching/mentoring and the serious dearth of encouragement from any sphere. I will be talking to SZABIST students about Entrepreneurship tomorrow. Lets see if there is any gold in them hills!
Maulana Altaf Hussain Hali (1837-1914), one of the great Muslim thinkers and poets of his time, wrote a stanza in Persian, the translation I m posting below:
If you ever run out of accomplices, DO NOT make friends with 3 people, First: Uzbek, Second: Afghan, Third: Kashmiri
I've never had any contacts with Uzbeks, but I can say for sure that the Afghan and Kashmiri people are the least trustworthy of all, and will eventually stab you in the back once they get what they want from you. So its no surprise that after all that the whole country has done for them, the relief goods being brought to them are looted in mid-way, Army jawans being targeted and injured, and the (so-called) distressed people openly proclaiming (even now) that they hate to be called Pakistanis as they are only "Kashmiris". While the compassion and generosity shown by the people thought the country is a good thing, it must, however, be remembered that the people being helped will eventually bite the hand feeding them. So in case some of you might be wondering what they (the Kashmiris) did to deserve all this, well, my answer would be "EVERYTHING".
Saqu bhai's comment about me in an e-mail he sent from Lahore.
You know what I love about Adnan apart from his technical, enterpreneurel skills etc. Its his passion. The passion you see only in a child. The enthusiasm, the excitement. I see in him an excited child every now and then. Just wanted to say this for a long time.